Understandably, background knowledge on how to properly assess the above options is rarely part of the toolkit we're handed in school, so most people go about evaluating the betting options intuitively. According to psychologist Daniel Kahneman, most people choose A2 and B1, when in fact A1 and B2 have higher chances of winning in their respective sets. The above test was first conducted by Maya Bar-Hillel in the 1970s. Drawing a red marble at least once in seven draws, with replacement, from a bag of marbles of which 10% are red and 90% white.Drawing 7 red marbles in a row, with replacement (meaning, you put the marble you picked back in the bag before drawing the next) from a bag of marbles of which 90% are red and 10% are white.
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